雲程的雙魚鏡 Apartment boom article of interest April 2018 via blogger

Apartment boom over Both new residential building and renovation activity declined significantly in 2017, with total seasonally adjusted dwelling starts down to 52,600 by the final quarter of the year, well down from the peak of 62,300 in the first quarter of the calendar year 2016. The drop was driven by a 17 percent year-on-year decline in attached dwellings, with Brisbane’s inner city apartment market the prime culprit. Sundry indicators suggest that activity across Queensland should now trend moderately upwards, spurred on by a healthier spread of boutique developments, ‘plexes, and townhomes. But inner Brisbane’s new build high-rise sector is absolutely cactus as the renters move in. Interestingly, despite the extremely high level of apartment starts through this cycle, total dwelling completions continued to decline for another quarter, suggesting that all is not well in developer-land. Crunch looms for developers By the end of the year there were still some 150,000 attached dwellings under construction. for the seventh consecutive quarter. Drilling down a level it’s clear to see that while apartment activity was fading fast in Melbourne and Brisbane respectively, Sydney and the state New South Wales had more than 68,000 attached dwellings under construction. To say that this is unprecedented would be an understatement; the numbers are off the charts! Now it does take a long time to see apartment projects through from approval, but in Sydney the completions just haven’t been hitting the market in the numbers expected. Total dwelling completions in 2017 for New South Wales were 61,600, with just over half of that total accounted for by attached dwellings, which on a net completions basis is barely keeping pace with demand. Officially, of course, everything is fine. There are few reported defaults, and settlement valuations are holding up reasonably well despite the softening of the resale market and the total evaporation of the offshore Chinese bid. With pre-sales flagging it’s certainly hard to envisage as many new projects getting off the ground, as investors grapple for finance in the midst of a Royal Commission into banking misconduct. It’s become a vicious circle, with nervous banks requiring higher pre-sales which developers are unable to achieve, and finance for construction thus not forthcoming. In any case, a raft of actioned and proposed budgetary and regulatory macroprudential measures have made property investment less appealing at the margin (and totally unappealing for foreign investors). Another compelling indicator of troubled times ahead for developers is the sheer number of dwellings approved but not commenced at 46,400, mostly accounted for by apartments and by far the highest figure in Australia’s history. What happens next? Now sure, the plural of anecdote is not data, but I believe that we’ll see many of Sydney’s apartment projects running into trouble. The official line is that defaults are low, and everything is going swimmingly, but I’m not so sure. By the way, don’t rely on anything you read here either, this is just my opinion. Take a drive around, speak to a few sales staff, observe how apartment projects are progressing. In addition to the astonishing boom and collapse of Chinese investors, another potentially unique aspect of this cycle is that construction and materials costs could remain high in Sydney, even in the face of a sharp drop in apartment activity. Forged on the back of a stamp and transfer duty bonanza from both residential housing and asset sales, the state has embarked upon an overdue thrust at tackling its infrastructure deficit, in turn propelling total construction employment to even greater heights. As a result construction employment surged higher than it had ever been before both in absolute terms and as a share of the workforce, squeezing developer margins. Receivers and cashed up opportunists will standby at the ready. written by Pete Wargent

Advertisements

About ljgrealestate 据联大

Removing the Hassle from Sales and Rentals across South East Queensland. Aim to Empower other like minded Property Investors. L J Gilland Real Estate is a prestigious boutique agency specializing in Property Investment Management Services and the Sales of Investment Properties with tenants in place. Comprised of a top performing group of handpicked specialists, our Agents proudly serve Property Investors in Queensland. Since 1996 our Agency has demonstrated a genuine enjoyment of working with people, developing long-term relationships and delivering on the promise of great service. Carlos and Linda Debello offer property investor's the confidence to sell and lease in any market. We provide comprehensive market appraisals, exclusive multimedia marketing campaigns, and knowledgeable, highly personalized counsel on all aspects of real estate. Our Property Management Team is equally considerate, offering investors with in-depth advise, well-researched rental valuations, and highly professional rental management services. http://goanimate.com/movie/0M4bvcZzgIbI?utm_source=linkshare&uid=0u6RGtWsmlVc Carlos’ direct mobiles are 0400 833 800 & 0413560808. Linda’s mobiles are 0409995578 & 0414978700 (prefer email contact for Linda). Office 07 3263 6085. http://www.ljgrealestate.com.au http://www.yellowpages.com.au/qld/aspley/lj-gilland-real-estate-pty-ltd-14091356-listing.html http://au.linkedin.com/in/lindajanedebello http://twitter.com/GillandDebello http://www.facebook.com/pages/ljgrealestate
This entry was posted in Australia, Brisbane, china, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ECONOMY FINANCE BUSINESS LJGREALESTATE RENTALS PROPERTY SALES PROPERTY INVESTOR PROPERTY MANAGEMENT, Empowerment, family, finance, Foreign Investment, LJ Gilland Real Estate Pty Ltd, ljgrealestate. Bookmark the permalink.