How Does Value Growth Over The Past Year Compare To The Previous Five Years?

Source Corelogic

15 Dec 2017

In this week’s Property Pulse we look at the change in dwelling values over the past year across the sub-regions of each capital city and examine how the performance compared to changes over the previous year and the average over the past five years.

SA4 regions are part of the Australian standard geographic hierarchy and in capital cities they typically have populations of between 300,000 and 500,000. For this reason looking at data at this level provides more detailed insight than just looking at capital city figures.

Across the capital cities there are 46 SA4 regions with the number across each capital city recorded at: 15 in Sydney, 9 in both Melbourne and Brisbane, 4 in Adelaide and 6 in Perth. The capital city regions of Hobart, Darwin and Canberra are equivalent to an SA4 region.

Change in dwelling values over the past 12 months,
previous 12 months and annually for the
past five years across capital city SA4 regions to Nov-17

Over the 12 months to November 2017, six capital city sub-regions recorded value falls and all of these regions were located in Perth or Darwin. While only six of these regions recorded annual value falls, 17 of these regions recorded value changes which were lower than at the same time a year ago. Of the regions which have recorded a lower rate of value growth compared to the previous year, 7 are in Sydney, 2 are in Melbourne, 4 are in Brisbane and there are 2 each in Adelaide and Perth. Given this, more than half of the regions in each capital city except Adelaide have recorded stronger annual value growth this year compared to last.

The story is somewhat different if a comparison is done between value growth over the past 12 months and the compound annual rate over the past 5 years. All 15 SA4 regions of Sydney have recorded value growth over the past year which is lower than the 5 year annual rate. Elsewhere, the number of SA4 regions which have underperformed the rate of growth over the past 5 years over the past year are: 3 in Melbourne, 7 in Brisbane, 2 in Adelaide, 5 in Perth and Darwin. Based on these figures, almost all of the regions of Sydney and Perth and more than half of the regions in Brisbane are underperforming relative to growth over the past five years.

Data over a shorter timeframe (month and quarter) shows that values are now falling in Sydney, slowing in most capital cities and increasing moderately in Perth. Given this, the data points to changing conditions over the coming year. It is anticipated that in 2018, the rate of growth in Sydney and Melbourne SA4 regions will generally be slower than the pace of growth over the past 12 months. In Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra growth is likely to be similar, potentially slightly softer in Hobart and a little stronger elsewhere. Meanwhile, with the recent uptick in growth in Perth the performance next year could be stronger as the market emerges from an 11% correction. Finally, Darwin values have continued to fall however, next year we could see Darwin follow the lead of Perth with the housing market moderately stronger.

Best Regards

Linda 姬琳达珍 and Carlos Debello (LREA)

LJ Gilland Real Estate Pty Ltd

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About ljgrealestate 据联大

Removing the Hassle from Sales and Rentals across South East Queensland. Aim to Empower other like minded Property Investors. L J Gilland Real Estate is a prestigious boutique agency specializing in Property Investment Management Services and the Sales of Investment Properties with tenants in place. Comprised of a top performing group of handpicked specialists, our Agents proudly serve Property Investors in Queensland. Since 1996 our Agency has demonstrated a genuine enjoyment of working with people, developing long-term relationships and delivering on the promise of great service. Carlos and Linda Debello offer property investor's the confidence to sell and lease in any market. We provide comprehensive market appraisals, exclusive multimedia marketing campaigns, and knowledgeable, highly personalized counsel on all aspects of real estate. Our Property Management Team is equally considerate, offering investors with in-depth advise, well-researched rental valuations, and highly professional rental management services. http://goanimate.com/movie/0M4bvcZzgIbI?utm_source=linkshare&uid=0u6RGtWsmlVc Carlos’ direct mobiles are 0400 833 800 & 0413560808. Linda’s mobiles are 0409995578 & 0414978700 (prefer email contact for Linda). Office 07 3263 6085. http://www.ljgrealestate.com.au http://www.yellowpages.com.au/qld/aspley/lj-gilland-real-estate-pty-ltd-14091356-listing.html http://au.linkedin.com/in/lindajanedebello http://twitter.com/GillandDebello http://www.facebook.com/pages/ljgrealestate
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