Price expectations were scaled back in all states. The strongest capital growth is expected in Queensland and Victoria, while NAB is forecasting NSW property growth to be flat, and property prices to fall in WA, SA and the NT.
NAB has lowered its house-price growth forecast for 2016 to 1%, from 2.3% previously, reflecting tighter credit restrictions, increases in supply, and amid continued affordability pressures around the country.
NAB is forecasting apartment prices will take the strongest hit, easing 1.2% in 2016, as an abundance of new supply comes onto the market.
Alan Oster, NAB Chief Economist, said, “Weakening fundamentals have already seen the market starting to cool, suggesting the best of the price gains are probably behind us.”
The survey also showed a decline in foreign-buyer activity in the market in the last quarter of 2015. Foreign buyers accounted for 14.4% of all new-property sales, compared with a survey high of 15.7% recorded in the third quarter of 2015. Foreigners bought 8.6% of established properties, compared with 9% in the third quarter.