|RBA first homebuyer loan approvals
Posted: 09 Nov 2013 03:05 PM PST
A lot of talk in recent weeks about "missing" first homebuyers.
The chart below from the Reserve Bank’s Chart Packs shows the nationwide picture.
First homebuyer activity superficially appears to remain at around its long term levels, although naturally enough there was a spike around 2009 following the introduction by Wayne Swan of the First Home Owners Grant Boost.
FHB activity of late has notably been far more pronounced in states such as Western Australia and South Australia according to data released by the largest mortgage broker Australian Finance Group (AFG).
Data for states such as New South Wales and Queensland shows a diminished level of First Homebuyer (FHB) activity.
However, the FHB data is almost certainly incomplete.
With no FHB grants now to claim in NSW, there is also no reason for first homebuyers to record themselves as such on a mortgage application.
Probably the best we can say about first homebuyer activity is that in Sydney in particular activity is low as FHBs are being crowded out by investors.
Low interest rates have seen the percentage share of investors in the market rising strongly since 2011.
Trying to drill down into the actual FHB figures is perhaps impossible if data is not being captured in full.
Some have enlisted parental help to jump aboard the housing ladder.
It was perhaps inevitable that FHB numbers would slide in New South Wales and Queensland as grants were withdrawn and investors capitalise on the low interest rate environment.
In Sydney, property prices rising have impacted FHB affordability over the past 12-18 months.
|Gold looking fragile again
Posted: 09 Nov 2013 02:25 PM PST
I’m not a fan of assets like gold which don’t produce an income, and which can incur storage and insurance costs.
It’s been a tremendous period for the stock market (as well as stocks paying healthy income, markets have moved way higher in recent times) but gold is now back in a downtrend and looking fragile.
Linda and Carlos Debello
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